在这期的《自然》上看到：
The family-planning policy has had both negative and positive effects on Chinese society. It has produced an alarmingly wide gender gap in the sector of the population born after the 1980s, and an inverted pyramid demographic that will be challenging to care for in the coming decades. The effects of a generation of ‘little kings’ on Chinese society and culture remain to be seen. However, the policy seems to have helped China move into the fast-lane of economic development. It may also have accelerated the improvement of the population’s well-being, as evinced by higher education levels and lower infant mortality rates.
In reality, the family-planning policy was never fully implemented. Ethnic minorities and rural peoples — the majority of China’s population — could in practice have two or more children, if not by policy design, then by paying an economic, political and social cost, such as in lost public-sector jobs or heavy fines. And from 1984, rural residents whose first child was female were allowed to have a second child. China’s real fertility was thus estimated to be around 1.8 children per family in 2006. However, according to a study in 2006, there are no accurate data because of missing birth registration records that have resulted in a hidden population.
记得之前郭凯讲过计划生育弊大于利的问题：http://kaieconblog.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!B4C829CC97B9EDD8!4840.entry
恐怕问题没有经济学家讲的那么简单吧？
btw, 自然这期的中国专题挺好的